[1]潘宇雄,周桂法,汪 旭.基于核路径分类与估计模型的贮存寿命预测[J].控制与信息技术(原大功率变流技术),2018,(05):62-65.[doi:10.13889/j.issn.2096-5427.2018.05.013]
 PAN Yuxiong,ZHOU Guifa,WANG Xu.Storage Life Prediction Based on Kernel Path Classification and Estimation Model[J].High Power Converter Technology,2018,(05):62-65.[doi:10.13889/j.issn.2096-5427.2018.05.013]
点击复制

基于核路径分类与估计模型的贮存寿命预测()
分享到:

《控制与信息技术》(原《大功率变流技术》)[ISSN:2095-3631/CN:43-1486/U]

卷:
期数:
2018年05期
页码:
62-65
栏目:
RAMS 技术
出版日期:
2018-10-05

文章信息/Info

Title:
Storage Life Prediction Based on Kernel Path Classification and Estimation Model
文章编号:
2096-5427(2018)05-0062-04
作者:
潘宇雄周桂法汪 旭
(中车株洲所电气技术与材料工程研究院, 湖南 株洲 412001)
Author(s):
PAN Yuxiong ZHOU Guifa WANG Xu
( CRRC ZIC Research Institute of Electrical Technology & Material Engineering, Zhuzhou, Hunan 412001, China )
关键词:
贮存寿命预测核路径分类与估计模型退化数据机电产品
Keywords:
storage life prediction KPACE (kernel path classification and estimation) model degradation data electromechanical product
分类号:
TP29
DOI:
10.13889/j.issn.2096-5427.2018.05.013
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为制定长寿命、高可靠性机电产品的修程,需要评估其贮存期内的剩余寿命。首先实施步降应力加速贮存寿命试验,获取失效数据及其性能退化数据;接着采用失效数据和三步分析方法建立阿伦尼斯加速模型,并通过数据折算公式将高应力下的性能退化数据折算到正常应力下;最后改进路径分类与估计模型,提出核路径分类与估计(KPACE)模型,并对某型机电产品的贮存寿命进行预测。结果表明,在小样本情况下,相对于统计模型,采用KPACE 模型可以得到更高的预测精度和更小的离散度。
Abstract:
In order to carry out the repair process of electromechanical products with characteristics of long life and high reliability, the remaining life of them in storage period needs to be evaluated. The step-down-stress accelerated life testing (SDS-ALT) is implemented to test electromechanical product to get failure and degradation data. A three-step analysis method is developed to establish Arrhenius accelerated model by using failure data. Then, degradation data at higher stress can be converted to those at normal stress by data conversion formula. A new individual-based prognostic algorithm, named the kernel path classification and estimation (KPACE) model, which is entirely based on the converted degradation data, has been developed to predict remaining storage life estimation of electronic product. Evaluated results of remaining storage life for a type electromechanical product show that KPACE model has higher prediction accuracy and smaller variance than that of the statistic model for small specimen condition.

参考文献/References:

[1]张春华,陈循,温熙森. 步降应力加速寿命试验(下篇)- 统计分析篇[J]. 兵工学报,2005,26(5):666-669.
ZHANG C H, CHEN X,WEN X S. Step-down-stress Accelerated Life Testing--Statistical Analysis[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2005, 26(5):666-669.
[2]COBLE J B, HINES J W. Prognostics algorithm categorization with PHM challenge application[C]//Proceedings of the international conference of prognostics and health management. Denver: IEEE, 2008:31-41.
[3]LU C, MEEKER W Q. Using degradation measures to estimate time-to-failure distribution[J]. Technometrics, 1993,35(2):161- 173.
[4]GARVEY D R. An integrated fuzzy inference based prognostics, diagnostics system[D]. Tennessee: University of Tennessee, 2007.
[5]CHEN J, SONG C W. Path classification and estimation model based prognosis of pneumatic cylinder lifetime[J]. Chinese Journal of Mechanical Engineering,2012,25(2):392-397.
[6]马静,苑丹丹,晁代宏,等. 基于漂移布朗运动的光纤陀螺加速贮存寿命评估[J]. 中国惯性技术学报,2010,18(6):756- 760.
 MA J, YUAN D D,CHAO D H, et al. Accelerated storage life evaluation of FOG based on drift Brownian movement [J]. Journal of Chinese Inertial Technology, 2010,18(6):756-760.
[7]张春华,陈循,李岳. 一种新的Weibull 分布恒定应力加速寿命试验统计分析方法[J]. 国防科技大学学报, 2002, 24(2):81- 84.
ZHANG C H, CHEN X, LI Y. Analysis for Constant-stress Accelerated Life Testing Data under Weibull Life Distribution [J]. Journal of National University of Defense Technology, 2002, 24(2):81-84.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2018-06-05
作者简介:潘宇雄(1983-),男,博士,高级工程师,主要从事电子装置系统可靠性设计以及可靠性试验关键技术研究。
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFB1200800)
更新日期/Last Update: 2018-10-18